As the year winds down, many businesses are looking ahead to what’s next. For fleet managers and business owners, fuel remains one of the most important – yet unpredictable – operational costs to plan for.
However, with a bit of forward-planning, you can take control, reduce guesswork, and start the new year with a realistic fuel budget that supports your business goals.
Here’s how to forecast smarter, plan better, and finish the year strong.
Now’s the time to forecast fuel costs
The final quarter of the year offers the perfect opportunity to reflect on your fleet’s fuel performance and put together a data-led plan for the year ahead. Looking back now helps you set a more realistic budget going forward. You’ll spot cost trends, understand which drivers or vehicles are using more fuel, and identify where you’ve had surprises or overspend.
Fuel forecasting challenges
Fuel prices are notoriously unpredictable. They’re influenced by everything from global oil supply to regional infrastructure issues and seasonal travel peaks.
Other factors that make budgeting a challenge include:
- Route changes due to traffic, weather or contract shifts
- New vehicle purchases or lease agreements
- Growth in delivery volumes or service areas
- Changing driver behaviour (e.g. idling, speeding, or detours)
- Unexpected maintenance or fuel inefficiencies
While you can’t control every variable, you can use data to forecast more accurately and give your team a flexible, realistic fuel plan for 2026.
Create a smarter fuel budget for 2026
Here are five practical steps to help you forecast and budget well.
1. Review your 2025 fuel data
Start with what you already know. Use tools like the fuelGenie dashboard to pull up monthly fuel spend, vehicle-by-vehicle usage, or driver performance trends.
Look for:
- Peak months of fuel use
- Vehicles with higher-than-average spend
- Routes or shifts where consumption spiked
- Instances of overspend or off-route refuelling
This insight gives you a baseline to forecast from, and helps you set realistic monthly fuel budgets for 2026.
2. Map out operational changes for 2026
What’s changing next year? Whether you’re taking on new contracts, expanding into new areas, or adjusting your team structure, these changes will affect your fuel spend.
Think about:
- Mileage increases or decreases
- Changes in delivery or service frequency
- New drivers or vehicles
- Shifting customer locations or job types
Pair this with your data from 2025 to project how much more (or less) fuel you’ll need each month.
3. Set your budget by driver or vehicle
Instead of guessing a figure for the year, break down your forecast by vehicle or team. This makes it easier to track, adjust and spot issues early.
With fuelGenie, you can:
- View fuel spend by cardholder, team or van
- Compare usage across drivers
- Set spend limits or monitor for anomalies
- Download monthly reports for budget tracking
This level of visibility turns your fuel budget from a guess into a tool.
4. Use digital tools to stay agile
Budgets are best when they’re flexible. If fuel prices spike unexpectedly, your data should help you respond, not just react.
Tools like fuelGenie’s online account give you:
- Real-time spend tracking
- Alerts when usage exceeds limits
- Data to tweak delivery schedules or routes
- Instant access to HMRC-approved invoices
It’s not about rigid targets, but about staying one step ahead.
5. Build in a buffer
No matter how well you plan, external pressures – from fuel price rises to roadworks – can throw your numbers off. That’s why it’s smart to build a 5–10% contingency buffer into your monthly or quarterly fuel budget.
This means fewer surprises, more room to adapt, and peace of mind as you start the year.
fuelGenie helps you plan
fuelGenie gives you the visibility, control and flexibility you need to make smarter decisions around fuel spend – even if fuel costs fluctuate.
You can:
- Track spend by vehicle or driver
- Identify fuel efficiency trends
- Set limits to prevent overspend
- Monitor performance over time
- Refuel at 1,350+ supermarket stations for competitive pump prices
- Upgrade to fuelGenie+ for even wider network access and ShellGo+ loyalty rewards
All this means your 2026 budget won’t just be numbers on a spreadsheet. It’ll be grounded in real insight and supported by tools that help you stay on course.
Start strong, finish stronger
With a few proactive steps and the right tools in place, you can step into 2026 with clarity, confidence and control. Ready to drive your business forward – fuelled by clear numbers, reliable data, and a smarter approach to spend.
